REVIEW PAPER
Response of radial growth of P. sylvestris var. mongolica (P. sylvestris) and Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Kuzen (L. gmelinii) to extreme climate and their future growth trends in the Daxing’anling Mountains, northeast China
Yujiang Yuan
1,2,3
1
Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
2
Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Physical and Chemical Research of China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
3
Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Ecology of Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830002, China
4
Xinjiang Climate Center, Urumqi 830002, China
Submission date: 2024-04-01
Final revision date: 2024-07-31
Acceptance date: 2024-08-14
Online publication date: 2024-08-22
Publication date: 2024-08-22
Corresponding author
Ruxianguli Man Abudoureheman
Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Physical and Chemical Research of China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi，China, Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi ,China, 新疆维吾尔自治区乌鲁木齐市建国路327号, 830002, 乌鲁木齐市, China
Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Physical and Chemical Research of China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi，China, Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi ,China, 新疆维吾尔自治区乌鲁木齐市建国路327号, 830002, 乌鲁木齐市, China
Geochronometria 2024;51(1)
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
The Daxing’anling Mountains are vulnerable to extreme weather and ecological degradation. Forests in this region have been substantially affected by extreme events; however, the pattern of future forest change remains uncertain. To determine the trends and reasons for extreme climate change, reanalysis data were used to assess the potential forest degradation resulting from future extreme climate events. Using tree-ring width chronologies of Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica (1952-2015) and Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Kuzen (1962-2015), we performed a comparative analysis of the relationships between radial growth of these two tree species and extreme indices based on Pearson correlations. The functions between extreme climate and tree ring width were then used in the LASSO algorithm. Using the CMIP6 models under the intermediate emission scenario (SSP2-4.5), we projected the tree ring width of the two species from 2015 to 2100 using calibrated meteorological fields. The tree-ring chronologies of both species were correlated negatively with extreme warm temperature indices and positively with extreme precipitation indices. P. sylvestris responded more significantly to extremely high temperature indices and precipitation, with a certain lag effect. L. gmelinii responded significantly to extremely cold temperature indices. Tree species specificity may explain why the two species show different growth–climate relationships. The growth of P. sylvestris may decrease during extreme climate change conditions, whereas the effect on L. gmelinii future growth is not significant. The predicted growth series in the 2015–2100 period showed that three abnormally high values, six abnormally low values, and one extreme abnormally low value occurred in P. sylvestris, whereas there were two extreme abnormally low values, four abnormally low values, and four abnormally high values in L. gmelinii. Our findings can help predict the resilience and sustainability of forest ecosystems in the face of extreme climate change and contribute to forest management strategies.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The research was supported by the Scientific and Tech-nological Development Fund of Urumqi Institute of De-sert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration (Urumqi Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteoro-logical Administration, KJFZ202306) “Reconstruction of Historical Runoff of Rivers in the Circum-Tarim Basin Based on Tree-Rotor Data, Estimation of Future Trends and Response Research”;
China Desert Weather Scientific Research Fund (Urumqi Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteoro-logical Administration, Sqj2023003) “Response of radial growth of different tree species to climate extremes and its future growth prediction in the eastern Tianshan Mountains”. Outstanding Youth Science Fund of Natural Science Foundation of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (2022D01E105) “Research on Tree Ring Change and Climate Influence Mechanism of Major Conifer Species in Xinjiang and its Surrounding Areas”; Intergov-ernmental Key Programmes of the National Key R&D Programmes (Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China, 2023YFE0102700) “Study on the Facts of Climate and Hydrological Changes in the Pamir Plateau in the Past Millennium and Future Projec-tions and Responses”; Natural Science Foundation of China (41975095) “Multiple Tree-ring Parameters Based Stability Study of Climatic Response Under the Context of Global Change and Climate Reconstruction for Cen-tral Asia”. Particular thanks are extended to the anony-mous reviewers and editors whose comments and sugges-tions helped us greatly in improving this manuscript. We thank Leonie Seabrook, PhD, from Liwen Bianji (Edanz) (www.liwenbianji.cn), for editing the English text of a draft of this manuscript.
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| eISSN: | 1897-1695 |
| ISSN: | 1733-8387 |
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